Norwich City – Analysis + comparisons with 2018/19 Fulham

The third international break is almost over, but before we look into the specifics of this Gameweek, we wanted to dive into another of the promoted teams – Noriwch City.

We tend to find patterns between teams year on year, so want to explore what habits Norwich are displaying compared to teams in last years’ relegation battle. The two teams that struggled last season were Huddersfield who finished bottom, and Fulham who finished just above them.

Looking at some of the top line stats that those teams produced are as follows, we have taken Norwich’s current form after 12 games and crudely projected their end of season statistics:

Norwich so far this season are conceding just over 2 goals a game and have collected one clean sheet this season in a 0-0 draw against Bournemouth. Norwich has conceded 208 against them, a number only beaten by Aston Villa. Norwich have also allowed 274 against them which is the worst in the league and they have failed to make 174 tackles which again is the worst in the league.

*Norwich’s top goalscorer is currently with Pukki who currently has 6 goals after 12 games. Many of these goals came early on in the campaign and his form has significantly slowed. Our best comparison would be Charlie Austin in the 14/15 season getting 18 goals for QPR. Odion Ighalo managed 16 goals in the 15/16 season and Wilfred Bony in 13/14 season scored 15 goals. We would have to go back to 2001 to find a newly promoted striker who scored 19 goals in a season, so we can chalk Teemu Pukki’s projected total down as highly unlikely.

What does this mean for your FPL Draft team?

Pukki

We would advise in large leagues, Pukki is still a player to hold as there are no more than 12 starting strikers in the PL- so having Pukki is still valuable. Realistically we can predict Pukki to score 12-14 goals. The forward takes penalties, and Norwich are very much an attacking side who like to enter the opposition area regularly, so there will be opportunities for him to score.

The downsides are 7 blank GW’s in a row, as well as the creative players around him now showing a dip in form.

If you have had enough of owning the Finnish talisman, there are some like-for-like alternatives that may be available to you:

• Delofeu – Has 2 favourable upcoming fixtures against Burnley and Southampton, has scored 2 goals in his last 2 games and showed his quality with a run of goals at the end of last season.
• Lys Mousset – Playing Man Utd next week but then a very good run of fixtures in the lead up to GW 19. Mousset is on great form with 3 goals and 3 assists in his last 7 games, cementing his place as the main man up top for Sheffield Utd.
• Danny Ings – Has scored 4 goals against tough opposition this season and 5 goals overall, has proved in previous seasons that he is capable of scoring goals despite Southamptons’ poor displays.

Buendia & Cantwell

Buendia is another player that has blanked 7 GWs in a row, not scoring yet this season. He should now be on the fringes of FPL draft teams, only being waivered in when Norwich have a favourable fixture.

Similar noises can be made about Todd Cantwell, also blanked 7 in a row – managing 2 goals and 2 assists in the 5 games prior. Cantwell has also been benched in the last 2 games so we would recommend dropping.

Hernandez

Hernandez scored the consolation goal against Man Utd in GW10, and has been Norwich City’s standout player over the last 2 games. Hernandez is a player that may not be on FPL Draft managers radars after missing the beginning of the season with injury.

Hernandez looks good taking on players and entering good attacking areas of the pitch, however his delivery seems to be poor. Only 1 out of 10 crosses from Hernandez this season has found a teammate. Hopefully for the wide man there is enough potential in his play to start winning returns, however this isn’t a player we would recommend for now.

Tim Krul

Amassing 37 FPL points so far, (just over 3PPGW), the keeper is 4^th in terms of saves made and 1^st in penalties saved – a stat for which he can thank the Man Utd penalty takers…

Norwich are conceding plenty of shots so Krul will get you very few clean sheets, however is racking up save points. If you are nervous of your current keepers’ ability to keep a clean sheet, picking Krul for the save points many be a worthwhile endeavour.

Players to waiver in against Norwich

Last season, a useful tactic was to stream in players who were facing Fulham or Huddersfield. We suggest the same can be said for the players facing Norwich:

• GW13 vs Everton – This could be an opportunity to waiver in the likes of Walcott, Iwobi, Tosun/Calvert–lewin if you have some spare slots in your squad of 15, for a 1 week punt.
• GW14 vs Arsenal – Players like Ozil, Ceballos or Guendouzi may be available to waiver in for this gameweek.
• GW15 vs Southampton – Looking at Ings if he free, Nathan Redmond or Djenepo.
• GW16 vs Sheffield Utd  – Any of the SHU defence is worth picking up in this week, Mousset is also worth brining in
• GW17 vs Leicester – You may struggle to find a starter for Leicester available, if there is one then absolutely pick that player up!
• GW18 vs Wolves – Adama Traore is worth picking up in this GW, looking further afield, Moutinho or Dendoncker may be worth points through an assist or goal

Overall, Norwich are closely mirroring Fulham’s performance last season – with a talisman up front but very poor defensively.

It is worth noting that Norwich have been hammered with defensive injuries, and are expecting two starting defenders in Hanley and Zimmerman looking to return to the squad in GW13 which may aid Norwich’s fortunes, but we doubt it.

Daniel Farke’s desire to keep the style of play that saw Norwich promoted to the Premier League is admirable, but will ultimately cost them their place in the top division. Their defence parts like the Red Sea at any sign of danger, the midfield is not good enough to give adequate protection and the Pukki Party ran out of booze after the Man City game.

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